Price & promotion analytics with Circana and Nielsen sell-out data

The challenge

FMCG companies spend a large share of their revenue on price promotions, but rarely know which ones create extra sales and which ones simply move volume around between weeks, products or retailers. Pricing and promotion decisions were based on gross uplift, not on true incremental value.

Our approach

1. Prepared and harmonised Circana (IRI) and Nielsen sell-out data at product, retailer and week level, including prices, promotion mechanics and distribution.
2. Built price elasticity models for each product and estimated cross-elasticities between the client's products and competitors' products.
3. Quantified cannibalisation and halo effects to separate truly incremental volume from volume shifted within the portfolio.
4. Evaluated promotion effectiveness by mechanic, depth and retailer, and turned the results into practical guidance for pricing and trade-spend planning.